A few minutes ago, I had the astounding oportunity to read a really lovely blog post made by the CodePlex team, in regards to the preferences of developers when building open source projects.
Basically, the post narrows down to this image:
Very suggestive, specially in the Windows part, where you are lead to believe that a 38% of the users building open source projects, who like Windows most, preffer CodePlex. Now, let's see the facts, according to the post they've had "... over 1,000 responses to the latest survey ..."
Now, let's do some basic math..., let's suppose that the CodePlex folks polled 2000 people (I hardly think so, but let's think it anyways). And let's think that we had 10 Linux project builders and 10 Mac projects builders. So, that would give us 1980 Windows project builders (I,m there!! wait... I didn't made the poll, so I'm not there :( ). From those 1980 Windows project builders, we have a 39% (also rounding in favour because I just love these folks), which is 772 project builders!. Now Github has 2,448,911 repositories and 888,893 users (checked right now), so the amount of Windows users following the data collected in the poll, should be around 328890 users (give or take). On the other hand, Codeplex has around 24005 projects (seems that they're not as proud as Github of their statistics, so I had to browse the directory) and an undisclosed amount of people.
The number speaks for themselves, without a deeper comprehension of the real amount of projects being held on either Github or Codeplex it's all a matter of "whatever floats your boat...". One thing to consider, I completely ignored the Linux and Mac community, but do keep in mind some hard facts:
Open source started on Linux, so most Open Source project builders are Linux based
- Linux devs, by definition, (mostly) hate Windows
- A big percent of PHP project developers are Linux based (there are plenty of PHP projects)
- Almost all iPod/iPhone/iPad developers are Mac based, and also (mostly) hate Windows
My personal oppinion is that I hardly believe that over 1000 responses in a poll gives a fair amount of usage on open Source projects. However, measuring the total amount of projects on might give a better insight of who's more popular, being Github the one with more preference, with 2,448,911 repositories!
As for the "...Mercurial preference dropping sharply...", I do not believe that Mercurial is going to be leaving the market anytime soon, quite the opposite, there is a vibrant comunity, at Google Code specially, and Mercurial does offer plenty of strengths. So my opinion of the post is biased, sorry about that guys, but I'm not convinced...
Well, this is it, remember this it's my personal oppinion and it's by no means the correct one, but do think about what I've written